Bitcoin (BTC) is showing an optimistic outlook amid news of an indefinite ceasefire in the US-Iran war.
This has boosted bullish predictions, and while BTC’s technical indicators are improving, according to the analysis company, short-term uncertainty still persists.
According to the latest analysis from cryptocurrency analytics company Matrixport, Bitcoin’s technical outlook improved this week, but short-term uncertainty persists.
The key determinant of Bitcoin’s future price movements will be the continued inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The analytics company stated that BTC is currently recovering near a key support level, and indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD are giving buy signals.
However, despite these improvements, Bitcoin trading volume remains insufficient, and a breakout above the 200-day moving average (MA) on the daily chart has yet to occur.
Analysts noted that a breakout above the 200-day moving average is crucial, and while continued inflows into spot ETFs and signs of increasing institutional investment are evident, there is also potential for short-term profit-taking.
In conclusion, the analysis firm argues that to speak more definitively about Bitcoin, it’s necessary to wait for confirmation of a breakout above key resistance levels, and for now, a wait-and-see approach seems the most sensible course of action.
Is Bitcoin’s Recovery a Signal of an Uptrend?
Besides Matrixport, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler also analyzed the latest situation in Bitcoin.
Selling pressure from short-term investors (STH) in Bitcoin reportedly decreased significantly in April.
The analyst stated that Bitcoin’s current price is around $78,000, which is still below the STH cost floor of approximately $83,000.
According to the analyst, the market hasn’t yet entered the premium range because BTC remains below this level. Historically, the STH cost floor at $83,000 has been a critical turning point for Bitcoin. The analyst argues that recovering and consistently holding above this level usually signals a more definitive uptrend.
When the analyst examines all the data together, he concludes that the recovery is not a new uptrend. Stating that the critical point is whether Bitcoin can break above its $83,000 STH cost basis, the analyst said, “If it succeeds, the STH discount rate will turn into a premium, giving a significant signal for a new upward cycle. However, if this does not happen, the current recovery will likely only be a temporary phase, not a new uptrend.”
*This is not investment advice.
