An Ethereum (ETH) spot ETF could be approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in May 2024, according to attorney Scott Johnsson. If not by May, approval could come in mid-2025, Johnsson estimates.
Johnsson's comments came in response to the SEC's recent filing for a spot Ethereum ETF. According to Johnsson, the process does not need to be as time-consuming as it is for Bitcoin (BTC). The foundation laid by the BTC ETF could accelerate the approval process for the ETH ETF.
The SEC published its first comment letters on companies' BTC spot ETF registration statements on September 29, 2023. Amended S-1 forms appeared about two weeks later, about 90 days before the Jan. 10 deadline. As of now, we are 90 days away from the May 23 deadline for ETH spot ETFs.
Johnsson believes there are many reasons to think the SEC could deviate from the BTC timeline and still issue an ETH spot approval. This may include delaying the entire S-1 comment process until after 19b-4 approval. He cautions against considering this data point as a whole, but notes that it is important information.
Bloomberg ETF Analyst James Seyffart also supports Johnsson's view. He argues that the SEC does not need as much time for ETH documentation as it does for Bitcoin. “Yes, they are different,” says Seyffart. “But getting BTC tokens from 0 to 1 would be a much bigger job than getting ETH tokens from 0 to 1, because you can base a large portion of BTC.”
Johnsson agrees with Seyffart's assessment. “It should be faster this time, which might explain the lack of engagement at the moment,” he says. He also notes that he assumes the SEC will comment prior to 19b-4 approval, which is not a guarantee.
Both experts express relatively high confidence that if approval does not come by May 2024, it should come by mid-2025.
*This is not investment advice.