According to StockCharts Chief Market Strategist David Keller, Bitcoin's recent decline suggests it could drop to around $52,000.
Bitcoin started 2024 with a significant rise, reaching an all-time high of nearly $74,000 in mid-March. However, over the following six weeks, BTC fluctuated between support around $60,000 and resistance around $72,000.
This week, Bitcoin finally broke below the support level at $60,000, indicating the potential for further declines before the long-term uptrend restarts.
Keller's analysis of the recent trading range reveals that the support level around $60,000 is aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level calculated using the January lows and March highs. He also noted that attempts to reach an all-time high in late March and early April failed.
Another important development was the fall below the 50-day moving average, which rose in the second week of April. Typically, bullish charts remain above the upward-sloping 50-day moving average, while a break below this short-term support indicator could signal a potential trend reversal.
As we enter May, Bitcoin is making lower lows and lower highs and is currently below the downward sloping 50-day moving average. Price momentum analysis using the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator shows that Bitcoin has now moved from a bullish phase to a bearish phase, according to the analyst.
From October 2023 to April 2024, the main trend in price coincided with the RSI remaining above the 40 level on retracements. We now see a more bearish configuration with the RSI well below the 60 level in counter-trend rallies.
If the downtrend continues, Keller suggests potential support in the $50,000 to $52,000 range, including the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $52,000. The 200-day moving average is also at this level, and round numbers like $50,000 and $60,000 have often served as important thresholds for BTC.
It is worth noting that with the latest Bitcoin halving behind us, BTC often sees sales in the month after the halving, according to the analyst. However, the 12 months following the halving include some of the most bullish periods in history.
While Keller remains encouraged by the long-term picture for Bitcoin, he warns that the short-term picture points to more weakness ahead.
*This is not investment advice.