Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant pullback this Monday, pushing the cryptocurrency market into a sharp decline. Why the trigger? The currently inactive Mt. Gox crypto exchange announced in July that it plans to return more than 140,000 BTC to customers. These customers' assets were stolen in a famous hack in 2014.
The market is now grappling with the potential impact of more than 140,000 BTC thought to flood the market in less than a month. To put this in perspective, this number is slightly less than the immediate liquidation of Fidelity's spot Bitcoin ETF, which currently holds 167,375 BTC.
But Alex Thorn, Galaxy's director of research, believes the market may be exaggerating this effect. “We think fewer coins will be distributed than people think, resulting in less BTC selling pressure than the market expects,” Thorn said.
According to Thorn's research, 75% of creditors are expected to receive payment “early” in July, which equates to a distribution of approximately 95,000 coins. Of those, Thorn estimates 65,000 coins will go to individual creditors. Thorn suggests that these creditors may be more resilient in terms of sales than most expect. Given that Bitcoin has risen 140x since the crash, not to mention capital gains taxes, they have already resisted “compelling and aggressive offers from demand funds” for years.
When it comes to demand funds, Thorn suggests that most partners in these funds are high-net-worth individuals looking to increase their Bitcoin holdings at a discount, rather than arbitrageurs looking for a quick and profitable trade. This may further reduce the selling pressure on the market.
As a result, according to analysts, Mt. While the return of Gox BTCs may initially seem like a threat to the market, the actual impact may be less than feared.
*This is not investment advice.