Following Bitcoin's latest mining reward halving, analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex predicted a significant shift in market dynamics, stating that demand for the cryptocurrency could lead to five times the supply.
Bitfinex Predicts Bitcoin Demand to Outstrip Supply Post-Hallowing
By reducing the mining reward per block from 6.25 BTC to 3,125 BTC, Bitfinex estimates that the daily supply of new coins could drop to $30 million, a fraction of the average daily demand for U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Bitfinex analysts stated in a report that they expect the new supply added to the market, primarily from mined BTC, to gradually decrease to $30 million per day after the halving.
This prediction is based on issuance trends and the expectation that smaller miner operations will cease due to declining profitability.
Since the halving event, data from Glassnode shows that the total number of new coins added to the daily supply has decreased from approximately 900 BTC to 450 BTC, in line with Bitfinex's predictions.
The launch of nearly a dozen spot-based ETFs in the US earlier this year further intensified demand for Bitcoin. Bitfinex assumes that average daily inflows into these ETFs will continue and support demand in the market.
Additionally, there are signs of a slowdown in miner sales as miners deplete their coin inventories in anticipation of the halving to fund operational upgrades.
Data shows that miners' coin holdings dropped by over 18,000 BTC in the six months before the halving.
In addition, Bitfinex noted that investors tend to prefer to store their coins directly, thus reducing the supply on exchanges. This was also reflected in Bitcoin stock market outflows, which reached levels not seen since January 2023.
*This is not investment advice.