According to cryptocurrency analysis firm K33 Research, Bitcoin price could reach a high of $45,000 on May 20, according to historical data.
K33 Research: "Current Trajectory in Bitcoin Looks Like 2018-2019 Bear Market"
K33 Research reports that BTC's current bearish and recovery cycle bears a notable resemblance to the pattern seen in the 2018-19 bear market in terms of length and trajectory.
Although the decline in 2018 was more severe than now, the similarity between the two is still striking. The lows in both cycles lasted approximately 370 days, with a peak-to-bottom return of 60% after 510 days in both cycles. The bear market rally in 2018 took place 556 days after the 2017 peak, down 34% from the peak on June 29, 2019.
Long-term investors are still reluctant to sell, down 60% from the previous peak, and are using these periods as accumulation periods, according to the analyst firm.
What's more, the rally in early 2023 has all the hallmarks of a "hate rally" in which investors feel less risky after a highly traumatic year, with investors reducing their risk in anticipation of further declines.
A reliable pattern or an illusory correlation?
BTC’s current drawdown and recovery cycle is remarkably similar to the pattern seen in the 2018-19 bear market in terms of length and trajectory.
If history repeats, BTC will peak around May 20 at $45,000. pic.twitter.com/JW4EaiMTOk
— K33 Research (@K33Research) April 17, 2023
A cryptocurrency rally is a term some people use to describe a situation in which the price of a cryptocurrency rises despite negative sentiment or criticism from the market or the media.
According to K33 Research, no one should expect the current drop to mirror previous ones exactly, but the resemblance to 2018's drop is surprising. Therefore, if the breakout continues, BTC could peak at $45,000 around May 20.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether the similarity between the current decline and the 2018 fall is a reliable pattern or a fictitious correlation.
*Not investment advice.