Matt Hu, CEO of cryptocurrency research firm Blofin, shared his views on the future price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
Blofin's Bitcoin Forecast
Hu analyzed potential scenarios for the first quarter of 2024, taking into account various factors such as Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin halving, Ethereum Cancun boost and P/E ratios.
According to Hu, Bitcoin's price in March 2024 could potentially exceed $50,000 if there are positive developments such as the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the halving event, which will reduce the supply of new BTC.
However, if interest rates remain high and there are no positive catalysts, Bitcoin could fall below $25,000.
Here are Blofin's BTC price predictions according to scenarios:
1- If investors do not have higher expectations about cryptocurrencies,
BTC dominance is around 50%: Ideal price is $21,500-$28,600
If BTC dominance increases to 60%: Ideal price $25,800-$34,300
2- If Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Launched
BTC dominance around 50%: Ideal price is $38,500-$41,173
If BTC dominance increases to 60%: Ideal price $46,300-$49,400
3- If liquidity returns with spot Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin halving etc. when events happen
BTC dominance around 50%: Ideal price above $43,700
If BTC dominance rises to 60%: Ideal price is around 52,500
Blofin's Ethereum Forecast
Hu also made price predictions for Ethereum, which he claimed has a higher volatility than Bitcoin. He said Ethereum's price is affected by revenue and valuation levels, which can be measured by the P/E ratio. The P/E ratio is the ratio of Ethereum's market cap to its annual network fees.
Hu said Ethereum's P/E ratio is currently much higher than that of high-growth US tech companies, which means Ethereum is overvalued.
He said that if the Cancun upgrade, which is expected to increase Ethereum's scalability and efficiency, does not significantly increase Ethereum's revenue and the P/E ratio remains at the current level, Ethereum's price could fall to around $1,200.
Here are Blofin's price scenarios for Ethereum:
1- If backed by the Cancun upgrade and some other speculative excitement
P/E Ratio: 300: Ideal price $3,483 for January 2024 and $5,415 for March 2024
P/E Ratio: 150: Ideal price is $1,741 for January 2024 and $2,707 for March 2024
2- Only if supported with Cancun upgrade
P/E Ratio: 300: Ideal price is $2,460 for January 2024 and $2,832 for March 2024
P/E Ratio: 150: Ideal price is $1,230 for January 2024 and $1,416 for March 2024
3- If there is stable expectation with limited impact of good news
P/E Ratio: 300: Ideal price is $2,285 for January 2024 and $2,345 for March 2024
P/E Ratio: 150: Ideal price is $1,142 for January 2024 and $1,172 for March 2024
*This is not investment advice.
