The declines in Bitcoin and altcoins, the Democratic victory in the US midterm elections, increasing inflationary pressures, and rising expectations of a Fed interest rate hike are leading analysts to adopt a cautious stance.
At this point, data shared by CryptoQuant indicates a significant shift in analyst expectations regarding Bitcoin’s future. The CryptoQuant data shows a seriously negative turn in the market outlook.
Top 10 Analysts More Cautious About Bitcoin!
According to research shared on CryptoQuant’s Analyst Consensus platform, the market optimism (sensitivity scores used by CryptoQuant) of the top 10 Bitcoin analysts with the highest historical accuracy rates has dropped from 79 to 58 in the last month. The decline in optimism among other analysts was more limited, falling from 77 to 68.
The study compared the forecasting performance of 66 analysts followed for a year. It noted that the top 10 analysts made more accurate assessments than others, particularly during downturns. While the accuracy scores of both groups were equal at 84 during bull markets, the top 10 analysts scored 48 during bear markets, while the other analysts scored 36.
CryptoQuant also revealed that out of 149 analysts who provided clear opinions in the last 7 days, 88 indicated a bullish position and 59 indicated a bearish position. This distribution shows that approximately 62% of analysts expect a rise, and the majority still maintain a bullish outlook. However, the weakening of bullish views compared to previous periods indicates a decrease in optimism in the market. It is not specified how many analysts still hold a positive view, which led to the drop from 88.
According to CryptoQuant, this distribution doesn’t indicate that Bitcoin has definitively entered a bear market, but rather that analyst opinions have shifted significantly towards a downward trend.
Analysts say that the shift in market sentiment is influenced by outflows from ETFs, inflation concerns, and the weakening of the Nasdaq index.
CryptoQuant also highlighted the decline in the Analyst Consensus Index, which tracks analysts’ market assessments. According to CryptoQuant data, the index fell from -1.0 in the first week of November to -1.8 in just one week. This indicates a significant shift towards pessimism and bearish sentiment regarding the Bitcoin market.
According to CryptoQuant, a positive market sentiment is indicated when the index’s 90-day average is above zero, a +1.5 level represents significant optimism, and a +2 level represents optimism above the usual levels.
Conversely, negative values below zero indicate an expectation of a decline. According to the data, a level of -1.5 is considered a clear bear market expectation. At this point, the current decline of the index to -1.8 reveals that the pessimism among analysts has exceeded the threshold of a clear bear market.
*This is not investment advice.
