Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart estimates that spot Ethereum ETFs have a 60% chance of gaining approval in May.
This prediction comes after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed decisions on potential ETH ETFs from BlackRock and Grayscale earlier this week.
Along with BlackRock and Grayscale, Ark 21Shares and VanEck are also vying for a spot Ethereum ETF. Experts were not surprised by the delays, as they expected the SEC to delay a decision on ETFs until later this year.
Seyffart is keeping a close eye on the May 23 deadline, which marks a 240-day deadline for the SEC to rule on applications from Ark/21Shares and VanEck. “My basic assumption is still probably around 60 percent that they will approve it around that date,” Seyffart said. However, he also acknowledged that the SEC has numerous ways to delay the process.
Grayscale is adopting a similar strategy to the Bitcoin ETF by attempting to convert the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) into an ETF. The company's Chief Legal Officer, Craig Salm, announced in a radio interview that the firm expects an SEC decision by summer 2024.
As May approaches, Seyffart believes there should be indicators that “inform” the public about the SEC's thought process. “There are a few different things we can look at to get an idea of what's going on, but we don't have it yet and I don't expect to have it for a while. Maybe another month or two,” the analyst explained. These indicators include filings and responses from both issuers and the SEC.
Seyffart compared the current process for spot ETH ETF approval to July of last year, when BlackRock and other companies were about a month into the spot Bitcoin ETF race and the Grayscale decision had not yet been made. “I know the timeline doesn't line up exactly that way, but what we know and what we don't know are the same,” he concluded.
*This is not investment advice.