QCP Capital's daily analysis notes that the US election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains highly competitive, and Polymarket's forecasts are increasingly aligning with actual polling data.
QCP Analysis: Trump-Harris Election Heats Up, Bitcoin Market Cautious
Polymarket still leans toward Trump with a 55% chance of winning, a significant drop from 66% just a week ago.
Bitcoin prices were mostly sideways in weekend trading, while leveraged perpetual contract positions fell to $26 billion from $30 billion, signaling a cautious market.
Additionally, the options market has seen significant activity since last Friday, with heavy buying of $75,000 end-of-November call options. Implied volatility has risen above 87% in the past week, while true volatility remains at 40%.
As election day approaches, these trends point to sharp movements in Bitcoin prices depending on the outcome.
QCP analysts suggest that if Trump wins, the market could react with a rapid price increase, while a Harris victory could bring downward pressure.
The cautious stance on leveraged positions and increased options activity suggest investors are bracing for volatility, with Bitcoin expected to remain within a range until the election results come out later this week.
*This is not investment advice.