As the weight of long-term investors increases in the Bitcoin market, the share of short-term speculative transactions has fallen to its lowest levels in recent years. In his latest assessment, Axel Adler Jr., an analyst at the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, emphasized that while the Bitcoin supply is increasingly concentrated in the hands of long-term investors, this structural change alone does not necessarily mean prices will rise.
According to data shared by Adler, the share of short-term investors in realized market capitalization has fallen to 23.5%, reaching its lowest level in recent years. According to the analyst, this ratio has only been below the current level for approximately 4% of the time in Bitcoin’s history.
In contrast, the share of long-term investors has risen to 52.5%. This rate is quite close to the historical peak of approximately 55% seen in 2018. It is also noteworthy that just three months ago, the share of short-term investors was 40%, while the share of long-term investors was 42%. The latest data reveals that Bitcoin is increasingly shifting from the hands of short-term investors to those of long-term investors.
According to the analyst, the decline in the percentage of short-term investors indicates a weakening of speculative trading activity in the market and limited inflows of new capital. The rise in the percentage of long-term investors, on the other hand, suggests that Bitcoins are being held for longer periods without being moved, and that the supply is concentrated in a group of investors described as “strong hands.”
However, Adler noted that this pattern should not be automatically interpreted as a bullish signal. He stated that unless there is a significant recovery in demand, low trading activity may continue and prices may remain under pressure.
The analyst noted that the current outlook shares similarities with the bottom of the 2022-2023 bear market. During that period, as the weight of long-term investors increased in the market, an acceleration of new capital inflows was needed for prices to rebound.
*This is not investment advice.
