Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a strong recovery in recent days after the sharp declines that began in October.
With questions about whether this rise will continue, attention has turned to today’s FED decision, a key macro event that could determine Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
When Will the FED’s March Interest Rate Decision Be Announced?
The Fed will announce its March interest rate decision on March 18, 2026 at 9:00 PM Turkish time.
Following the decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will make oral statements at 9:30 PM.
In Which Direction Are Expectations Focusing?
Expectations are almost clear ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
According to analysts, the Fed will keep its policy interest rate stable at 3.50-3.75 percent at this meeting and will avoid signaling a rate cut in the short term. However, more attention is focused on Powell’s statements, which are seen as the most critical factor in determining the direction of the markets, rather than the decision itself.
According to market pricing, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at this meeting is almost zero. Futures contracts indicate that an interest rate cut could be on the agenda no earlier than September or October.
According to analysts, the most significant factors complicating the Fed’s decision-making process are the ongoing US/Israel-Iran war, which has lasted more than two weeks, as well as rising oil prices and inflation risks.
Because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is pushing energy prices up, it is increasing pressure on inflation.
Speaking to CNBC, former Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said he expects the Fed to use “cautious” language regarding inflation, unemployment, economic growth, and the expected policy path.
However, Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, is not expected to give a clear timeline for interest rate cuts.
Powell is instead expected to maintain a neutral stance, avoiding making definitive promises. He is also expected to leave future decisions open to interpretation, depending on incoming data and the next Fed chairman.
According to the Fed’s 2026 calendar, other interest rate decisions are expected to be announced in April, June, July, September, October, and December.
*This is not investment advice.
