Cryptocurrency asset management company Bitwise has raised its price forecast for Bitcoin in its comprehensive report on the next decade. In its main scenario, the company predicts that BTC could reach approximately $1.6 million in 2036, adding that much higher levels could be reached if institutional investors accelerate their entry into the market.
The report, “2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions,” prepared by a research team including Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen, bases this expectation on three developments: growing institutional demand, strengthening interest in store-of-value assets due to increasing government debt, and Bitcoin’s limited supply.
In its previous report, Bitwise had set a target of $1.3 million for Bitcoin by 2035. In the new study, the forecast period has been moved to 2036, and the expected annual compound growth rate has been increased from 28.3% to 34.3%. The company attributed this change to the growth of markets where Bitcoin can gain a share and its increased confidence in long-term adoption.
How Was the $1.6 Million Target Calculated?
Bitwise’s model calculates how much Bitcoin could potentially receive from areas such as gold, institutional portfolios, government reserves, and corporate treasuries in the future. The total value assumed to flow into Bitcoin from these markets is divided by the maximum BTC supply of 21 million to arrive at a price prediction.
The main support for the core scenario is the store of value market. The company assumes that this market, comprising the combined value of gold and Bitcoin, will grow from approximately $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion in 2036. If Bitcoin takes a 25% share of this market, it corresponds to a value of approximately $27.5 trillion in the model.
This includes expected shares from institutional investment portfolios, emerging market currencies, national and corporate treasuries, and other use cases. Ultimately, the Bitcoin price in the main scenario is calculated to be $1,599,766.
The company does not deduct lost Bitcoins from the supply in its calculation and uses the total supply of 21 million, which includes BTC that has not yet been mined.
In a Bullish Scenario, the Target is Approaching $3.7 Million
The report does not include a single price expectation. Bitwise’s bearish scenario points to $130,686 for 2036, its main scenario to approximately $1.6 million, and its bullish scenario to $3,667,911.
These scenarios are given compound annual growth rates of 4.6%, 34.3%, and 46%, respectively. The calculations use a starting price of $83,557 as of September 30th.
The major difference between the scenarios stems from the assumptions about Bitcoin’s share of the market. For example, Bitcoin’s share of the store of value market is set at 2.5% in the bear scenario, 25% in the main scenario, and 50% in the bull scenario. The bear scenario is also based on the assumption that this market will continue to grow.
Trillions of Dollars in Demand May Come from Institutional Investors
Bitwise, citing data from Boston Consulting Group, reports that institutional investors manage approximately $147 trillion in assets. According to the company, if these investors were to allocate 1% to 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin over the next decade, it could create a need for purchases of approximately $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion.
The report cites the fact that spot Bitcoin investment products in the US have reached $108 billion in assets, and that large wealth management platforms are expanding access to these products, as developments indicating progress in institutional adoption.
On the supply side, it is emphasized that approximately 20.1 million of the total 21 million BTC are already in circulation. Bitwise expects the annual increase in new supply to decrease from approximately 0.8% to 0.4% in 2028 and 0.2% in 2032. According to the company, the inability to accelerate production to meet demand, even if the price rises, is a key component of the long-term bullish thesis.
Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Coming to an End?
Bitwise believes that institutionalization could mitigate the sharp declines in Bitcoin over time. The report notes that BTC is projected to fall by 53.4%, from its peak of $126,080 on October 6, 2025, to $58,717 on June 30, 2026.
It is stated that in previous major cycles, losses from peak to trough were 86 percent, 84 percent, and 77 percent. According to the company, maintaining the June low could mean that this cycle will end with a more limited decline compared to past ones.
However, Bitwise does not expect the four-year cycle to disappear completely. They believe that while the cycle’s influence may weaken as institutional investors gain more weight, investor psychology will continue to play a role in price movements.
*This is not investment advice.
