Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, a popular analytics platform in the cryptocurrency world, assessed Bitcoin’s current downward trend and how far the price could fall in light of macroeconomic data.
According to Cowen, historical cycles and macroeconomic indicators suggest that Bitcoin has not yet reached its ultimate bottom.
The renowned analyst, focusing on Bitcoin’s traditional “4-year cycles,” reminded us that past cycles show Bitcoin finding its macro bottom approximately a year after reaching its peak. Stating that this historical pattern still holds true, Cowen predicts the most likely major bottom scenario for Bitcoin could occur around October 2026.
Benjamin Cowen pointed out a crucial feature that distinguishes this market cycle from the bull markets of 2017 and 2021. He noted that in past peaks, small investors acted with excessive enthusiasm, triggering a massive altcoin season, but this time the situation is different:
“This cycle was a period where Bitcoin peaked due to apathy rather than enthusiasm. Individual investor interest in crypto was significantly lower compared to previous years. Because the peak came from apathy, the anticipated major altcoin rally and currency rotation did not materialize.”
The analyst argued that this pattern historically most closely resembles the market structure of 2019, and that money continues to be dominated by Bitcoin rather than altcoins.
Cowen Thinks Bitcoin Price Could Continue Falling to $40,000
Cowen provides a clear answer to the question investors are most curious about, “How low can the Bitcoin price fall?”, based on on-chain and mathematical indicators: the $40,000 region.
The analyst points to this region where critical metrics like Realized Price and Balanced Price converge, indicating that Bitcoin is finding its cyclical bottom. According to Cowen:
- A roadmap towards the $40,000 mark is on the table for Bitcoin to experience a complete macro-level reset.
- The popular analyst predicts that, if historical 4-year cycle patterns are followed, Bitcoin could reach its true market bottom in the last quarter of 2026 (specifically around October-November).
Cowen stated that the Bitcoin price doesn’t move in isolation but is directly linked to global business cycles and liquidity, noting that the continued strengthening of the US Dollar Index (DXY) is putting significant pressure on risk assets. He added that this persistently strong dollar index could continue to pressure the market for some time and support a cyclical downtrend.
Cowen concluded his analysis by recalling his famous quote: “Bears sound smart, but bulls win the money,” noting that bearish scenarios in the market always sound wiser, but long-term strategies always pay off. He argued that investors should focus on on-chain risk metrics and data rather than emotional decisions.
*This is not investment advice.
