What is the Puell Multiple?

The Puell Multiple is calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of Bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average (MA) of that same value.

In the simplest terms, this metric answers the question: “If miners sold all the newly mined Bitcoins at the current price, how profitable would they be compared to the past year?” Since miners have mandatory expenses (electricity, hardware, etc.), they are the most price-sensitive cohort. By measuring miners’ selling pressure, this ratio perfectly highlights regions where the market is overvalued (tops) or extremely undervalued (bottoms).

How to Interpret It? (Critical Buy/Sell Zones)

🔴 Puell Multiple > 6 (Red Zone / Top Signal): When the multiple rises above 6, it shows that miner revenues have increased extraordinarily compared to their costs and the past year. This means the Bitcoin price has become “overvalued” in a short period, and miners have a very strong motivation to realize this high profit (by selling). Historically, this zone marks macro cycle tops (the beginning of a bear market).

🟢 Puell Multiple < 0.4 (Green Zone / Bottom Signal): When the multiple falls below 0.4, it indicates that the price has dropped so low that miners’ revenues can no longer cover their electricity and hardware costs. Unprofitable miners shut down their operations (capitulation). The remaining miners refuse to sell their BTC at a loss, causing the newly mined supply to dry up. Historically, this zone highlights perfect “macro bottom” (long-term buying) opportunities where the price is well below its intrinsic value and risk is at its lowest.

(Note: During Halving periods, since block rewards are cut in half, sudden sharp drops in the Puell Multiple are normal and should be interpreted according to broader market dynamics.)