As the global economy enters a new phase of “reflation,” some analysts believe this shift could create a positive environment for Bitcoin (BTC).
After a period of cooling in inflation, signals from commodity and currency markets suggest that price pressures may turn upward again.
André Dragosch, Research Director at Bitwise Europe, stated that commodity and FX markets indicate a new wave of reflation globally. Reflation means that declining inflationary pressures reverse and begin to rise again; this process is usually accompanied by rising commodity prices, weakening currencies, and expansionary monetary policies.
According to Dragosch, capital is shifting from US Treasury bonds to commodities. Indeed, gold has reached an all-time high, while silver has risen by approximately 50% since the beginning of the year.
While gold and silver hit record highs, the price of Bitcoin remained relatively stable. However, Dragosch reminds us that historically, periods of reflation have resulted in higher prices for Bitcoin.
Dragosch also suggests that the Fed may have begun intervening in currency markets along with the Bank of Japan. This view is also expressed by former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.
According to Hayes’ latest analysis, if the weakening of the yen against the dollar occurs simultaneously with a rise in Japanese government bond yields, this could signal a questioning of confidence in government debt in the markets. In such a scenario, it is assumed that the Fed buys yen by printing dollars and uses these yen to buy Japanese bonds, thus expanding its balance sheet.
However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent denied these allegations. Speaking to CNBC, Bessent responded to a question about whether the Trump administration was interfering in Asian currencies by saying, “Absolutely not. We have a strong dollar policy.”
*This is not investment advice.
