Investment company ARK Invest has published its latest report containing its forecasts for 2026 and beyond.
The report specifically argues that Bitcoin is increasingly becoming central to a new asset class, and that the digital asset market has strong growth potential until 2030.
According to ARK Invest’s assessment, Bitcoin experienced more limited pullbacks throughout 2025 compared to its all-time high. Data measured over five-year, three-year, one-year, and three-month timeframes revealed that Bitcoin exhibited lower volatility compared to past cycles and strengthened its “safe haven” role. The report interpreted this as Bitcoin solidifying its position in the markets as a maturing asset.
ARK Invest stated that its 2030 market capitalization forecast for Bitcoin remains largely unchanged, but some key assumptions have been updated. Specifically, the total addressable market (TAM) used in the “digital gold” narrative has been revised upward by 37%, following a 64.5% increase in gold’s market capitalization by 2025. Conversely, the adoption rate of Bitcoin as a “safe haven” in emerging markets has been reduced by approximately 80% compared to previous assumptions, due to the rapid growth in stablecoin usage.
The report projects trillions of dollars in potential market capitalization contributions from various factors, including institutional investments, nation-state treasuries, corporate balance sheets, and Bitcoin-based on-chain financial services, under different scenarios. According to updated end-of-2025 assumptions, the “digital gold” factor alone could contribute up to $14.6 trillion to Bitcoin’s market capitalization in a bull scenario.
According to ARK Invest, the digital asset market, encompassing pure digital currencies and smart contract networks, could reach a size of $28 trillion by 2030 with an estimated compound annual growth rate of approximately 61%. Bitcoin is expected to dominate approximately 70% of this total, while the remainder will consist of smart contract platforms such as Ethereum and Solana.
According to the report, Bitcoin’s market capitalization could grow from approximately $2 trillion to nearly $16 trillion in the next five years, with a compound annual growth rate of about 63%. The total market capitalization of smart contract networks is expected to reach $6 trillion by 2030, with a 54% annual growth rate. These networks are claimed to generate approximately $192 billion in annual revenue and derive a significant portion of their market capitalization from “monetary premium” features.
*This is not investment advice.
