JPMorgan, one of the largest US banks, predicts that Bitcoin could rise to as much as $170,000 in the next six to 12 months despite the current bear market.
The bank's strategists based this estimate on a volatility-adjusted valuation model that compares the cryptocurrency to gold.
“Our volatility-adjusted Bitcoin-gold comparison shows the theoretical Bitcoin price approaching $170,000, suggesting strong upside potential for the next 6-12 months,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note.
Bitcoin has undergone a sharp correction in recent months due to a strengthening risk-off trend, uncertainty surrounding the 2026 interest rate path, and concerns about Michael Saylor's company, Strategy. Trading around $92,593, Bitcoin has been declining since the beginning of the year, retreating 26% from its peak above $126,000.
However, JPMorgan believes Bitcoin may exhibit pricing behavior more similar to gold over the long term. This correlation was particularly evident in April, when strong inflows into Bitcoin amid a sell-off in US stock markets fueled by tariff concerns.
However, MSCI is considering removing companies with a digital asset weighting above 50% from the indices and will announce its decision on January 15.
If this rule goes into effect, the BTC bull firm Strategy will be removed from the MSCI USA and MSCI Global indexes. JPMorgan calculated that this could create approximately $2.8 billion in selling pressure on the company's shares.
However, JPMorgan notes that a positive decision could trigger a strong recovery wave for both Strategy and Bitcoin:
“If the MSCI decision is positive, both MicroStrategy and Bitcoin will likely return strongly to pre-October 10 levels.”
*This is not investment advice.
