FED member Christopher Waller expressed his optimism about the course of inflation while maintaining his firm stance on the need for additional interest rate cuts.
Speaking at a conference in France on Wednesday, Waller said inflation was moving steadily toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target but said it was “too early to declare the end” of the central bank's easing cycle.
Waller highlighted the recent improvements in inflation measures and listed the reasons for his optimistic outlook:
- Decline in Core Inflation: The six-month annualized core inflation rate came to 2.4% in November, improving from 2.8% in the same month of the previous year.
- Sticky Price Components: Waller attributed most of the remaining inflationary pressure to imputed prices, which he described as a “less reliable guide” to true supply-demand imbalances. These imputed prices account for about a third of the core price basket.
- Base Effects: Waller stated that annual inflation rates could fall further by March if there are no significant price increases in the coming months.
Waller said the “little progress” in 12-month inflation data had led some to call for a pause in policy adjustments. But he rejected that view, saying: “I believe inflation will continue to move towards our 2% target over the medium term and that further rate cuts would be appropriate.”
Waller's speech made it clear that the Fed remains committed to its inflation target, signaling that further rate cuts are likely on the horizon. Waller emphasized the importance of maintaining the current momentum, and said he did not yet see conditions that would require an end to monetary policy easing.
“My bottom line message is that I believe further rate cuts will be appropriate,” Waller said, reinforcing the central bank’s cautious but proactive approach to ensuring inflationary pressures are effectively addressed.
*This is not investment advice.
