Leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin fell below $69,000 in Asia today after falling 4% from a one-month high.
Trump May Be Behind the Fall in Bitcoin!
The decline comes as odds of a Trump victory over Kamala Harris narrowed on PredictIt, Polymarket and Kalshi, where users can bet on the US election outcome.
At this point, Sean Farrell, speaking to Bloomberg, said that the reason behind Bitcoin's decline is the decrease in the probability of Trump's election victory in the betting markets.
Speaking to Bloomberg, Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, noted that BTC’s bullish momentum has weakened as Trump’s election odds have declined.
“BTC’s bullish momentum is weakening as the odds of pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump winning the US presidential race have fallen in betting markets.
The reason BTC is testing below $70,000 could be because Trump is losing momentum ahead of the election and therefore investors are reducing potential exposure to Bitcoin.”
The analyst finally warned investors about the information value of prediction markets and their vulnerability to manipulation, adding that Trump's victory lead over Vice President Kamala Harris has narrowed in prediction markets such as PredictIt, Polymarket and Kalshi.
Accordingly, Trump's probability of winning in Polymarket fell to 61.5%, while Harris' probability of winning increased to 38.5%.
Buy the Rumor, Sell the News Event May Happen in Bitcoin!
Apart from Sean Farrell, Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research also shared his Bitcoin analysis. Yardeni stated that Trump's win could be a buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news situation for BTC, and said:
“Bitcoin will likely fall if Harris wins, but its response to a potential Trump presidency is harder to gauge.
Bitcoin could continue its rally, or given its gains since the beginning of the year, BTC could fall in a classic buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news situation.”
*This is not investment advice.
