Binance Research, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, published a report today analyzing the course of cryptocurrency markets.
Analysts at Binance Research, who also examined the reasons for the recent decline in Bitcoin and altcoins, stated that the main reasons for the decline were the German government sales that started in June and the Mt. Gox distributions.
“June Was Painful!”
Pointing out that the last few months have been difficult for the cryptocurrency market, analysts said that they remain optimistic for the future.
“The last few months have undoubtedly been challenging for crypto markets. Despite the rapid rise at the beginning of the year, we seem to be trading in a range for some time now.
June was particularly brutal, with total crypto market capitalization falling by approximately 11.4% month-on-month. Although there has been some relief in the last few days with a rebound in the market, we are still approximately 14.0% down from the peak in March.
We have witnessed a perfect storm of sorts, with several organizations reportedly divesting their Bitcoin, adding to selling pressure and negative sentiment.
“This selling pressure was triggered by US and German government sales and Mt.Gox refunds.”
Stating that the “negative impact” on Bitcoin may be limited, Binance Research analysts stated that despite the structural difficulties, they remain optimistic for the rest of the year and there are bullish catalysts.
Binance explained that these catalysts are Ethereum ETFs, Bitcoin halving, Trump's pro-BTC moves, and the positive macroeconomic environment.
Spot Ethereum ETF Approval!
Stating that it is rumored that Spot ETH ETFs may be opened for trading on July 23, analysts said that new capital inflows will increase the demand for ETH.
It was stated that although ETH demand does not increase in the short term, it will have a positive impact on the market in the medium and long term.
Macroeconomic Environment!
With inflation showing signs of abating (latest CPI data fell for the third month in a row and fell short of expectations), investors are now pricing in an interest rate cut in September, analysts say.
“Rate cuts at this point tend to stimulate many different markets and could be a potential boost for stock and crypto markets.”
US Presidential Election and Bitcoin Conference!
Polymarket puts the probability of Donald Trump winning the November presidential election at 70%.
Trump accepted crypto donations in May as part of his campaign. Trump also announced that he has chosen pro-crypto senator JD Vance as his vice president, who has announced that he holds between $100,000-250,000 BTC and has previously spoken positively about blockchain technology.
Trump is scheduled to speak at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville on July 27, and it will be important to watch what he says.
Impact of Bitcoin Halving!
Bitcoin prices have tended to be higher 6 to 12 months after the halving. While there is no guarantee of Bitcoin's future performance based on historical data, the 6-12 month timing roughly coincides with the Fed's September meeting and the US Presidential Election.
Despite a recent upswing, the crypto market has largely been rangebound and is still down from its peak in March.
Curious about what's happening? We introduce our CPT framework and examine a few short- and long-term drivers in this report.
Read on 🔽https://t.co/df20fbuDLa
— Binance Research (@BinanceResearch) July 19, 2024
*This is not investment advice.
