Cryptocurrency research firm Presidio Bitcoin has published a comprehensive technical report examining the potential impact of quantum computers on the Bitcoin network.
The report states that while Bitcoin is not under a direct threat in the short term, the time to take necessary precautions is “limited to years, not decades.”
According to the report, the main risk is that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive private keys from public keys using the Shor algorithm. It states that if a cryptographically strong quantum computer (CRQC) existed today, approximately one-third of the total supply, or 6.5 million BTC, could be directly at risk.
A large part of this risk is related to the reuse of addresses. It is stated that approximately 4.5 million BTC are concentrated in large custodians that use the same addresses due to operational convenience. According to the report, this risk can be significantly reduced simply by switching to new addresses, without the need for any protocol changes.
The remaining structural risk stems from legacy pay-to-pubkey (P2PK) addresses encompassing approximately 1.72 million BTC. A large portion of these assets are believed to be lost. On the other hand, it is added that addresses where only the public key hash is visible and no spending has ever occurred are considered safe based on the available information.
It remains uncertain when quantum computers will reach this level. According to expert surveys, there is around a 50 percent chance that such machines will emerge between 2030 and 2035. However, significant uncertainties still exist regarding the scalability of the necessary hardware.
The report also stated that work has begun within the Bitcoin ecosystem to address this threat. It noted that developers are considering integrating quantum-resistant signature systems via “soft forks,” and that discussions on this topic accounted for 5% of total messages in 2024, rising to 50% by early 2026.
The report also noted that the network’s capacity would be sufficient for a potential migration process. If 25% of the block space were used for this purpose, it is estimated that 90% of Bitcoin’s total value could be moved to new addresses in approximately four days.
*This is not investment advice.