The largest altcoin, Ethereum (ETH), is experiencing a more passive rise compared to Bitcoin and other altcoins.
ETH, which has been in steady decline against BTC, is up only 36% this year, significantly lagging behind BTC’s impressive 109% rise.
The outlook for Ethereum is still bleak. At this point, analysts believe that the price is unlikely to exceed $4,000 by the end of December due to investor disinterest in ETH.
According to CoinDesk, new research from Amberdata suggests that ETH has only a 10% chance of breaking past its Q1 high of $4,000. However, investors are betting that BTC will break new highs above $100,000 while not expecting much of a rally for ETH.
At this point, Amberdata Derivatives Director Greg Magadini said that according to probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) indicators, investors estimate that Ethereum has only a 10% chance of breaking the $4,000 mark by the December 27 option expiration.
Attributing the negative outlook for ETH to weak fundamentals, Amberdata director Magadini said:
“ETH faces significant headwinds due to the value proposition of ‘sound money’ (aka deflationary supply due to fee burn) with almost all DeFi transactions currently being conducted on Ethereum layer-2s.
I believe this has significantly driven down the price of Ethereum.”
*This is not investment advice.