Cryptocurrency analysis firm QCP Capital evaluated the situation of Bitcoin (BTC) after a decline of approximately 4%. The firm noted that BTC fell below $69,000 and Ethereum (ETH) fell below $3,500 due to a relatively large outflow of -$223.8 million for BTC spot ETFs on Monday.
The firm continues to monitor buyers of long-term BTC purchase contracts, particularly large daily purchases of $200k contracts for March 2025.
QCP Capital has also begun monitoring market positioning for the upcoming ETH spot ETF, with a May 23 filing deadline set. The firm noticed signs similar to those seen prior to BTC spot ETF approval:
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Call contract buyers and higher futures funding and forwards are pushing the spot market higher, causing the Grayscale spread to rise to -24%, similar to the GBTC cut in October.
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There is an increase in long positioning in CME ETH futures.
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However, the SEC is not aggregating ETH spot ETF deadlines as it did prior to BTC spot ETF approval. This raises the question: Does this mean ETH spot ETF approval is less likely?
Regardless, QCP Capital expects some additional volatility in May.
Last Friday, QCP Capital predicted a possible rally and expected this move to be led by BTC. However, the firm admits that they were wrong about who the leader was, as this movement was largely led by ETH.
*This is not investment advice.