Despite Bitcoin’s (BTC) price rally in the current cycle, the market is exhibiting unusually calm behavior compared to previous bull runs, according to CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan.
In a recent analysis, Dan cited both macroeconomic conditions and changing market dynamics as the primary reasons for this divergence, citing a lack of “explosive new funds and participants.”
“In past cycles, the market usually heats up quickly with strong upsides and a large influx of short-term holders,” Dan said. “But this time, the percentage of Bitcoin held from one week to one month is significantly lower than before. This points to a notable absence of speculative capital and new retail participants.”
Dan attributes this change to two key factors:
- Changing Liquidity Environment: “The 2020-2021 bull run occurred in an environment of near-zero interest rates and aggressive quantitative easing,” Dan explained. “Now we are in a phase of high interest rates and tight liquidity. Capital flows are no longer free, and large-scale swings have become more difficult to achieve.”
- Institutional Dominance: The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has structurally changed the market, according to Dan. “Individual investors used to drive the momentum. Now, with institutional capital leading the way, we are seeing a more controlled, ladder-like rise in Bitcoin price, rather than the rapid, emotional rallies of the past,” he said.
This cautious institutional behavior is also reflected in on-chain data, which some analysts suggest may already be signaling a cycle peak. However, Dan believes that the current phase does not imply a traditional boom-and-bust trajectory. Instead, he envisions a longer and more complex market structure ahead.
“ETF inflows are still ongoing and if the macro environment gradually eases, we could see meaningful trends emerge in 2025,” Dan said.
*This is not investment advice.
