While the “four-year cycle” theory continues to be debated in the Bitcoin (BTC) world, renowned analyst Lyn Alden made important assessments regarding the current state of the market in her latest appearance on a television program.
According to Alden, while Bitcoin made significant institutional progress in this cycle, weak individual investor interest limited the upward trend.
Lyn Alden stated that Bitcoin outperformed expectations in 2024 by surpassing $100,000, but its failure to reach its 2025 target of $150,000, remaining at $126,000, was “disappointing.”
Alden noted that the four-year halving cycle is no longer as definitive a law of nature as it once was.
Addressing the common narrative in the market that veteran investors are selling Bitcoin, Alden said the data tells a different story. Noting that the amount of Bitcoin that hasn’t moved in over five years is at a record high, the analyst stated that those selling are generally family-owned investors taking profits because their portfolios have become excessively large.
According to Alden, this isn’t due to Bitcoin losing value, but rather a statistical result stemming from the asset’s 17-year history.
Alden argued that the biggest shortcoming of this cycle is “individual investor participation,” noting that demand is confined to a narrow area (institutions and ETFs).
The analyst said that individual interest is shifting from Bitcoin to artificial intelligence, precious metals, and prediction markets. Lyn Alden predicts that the current bear market may be shorter than previous cycles. She notes that the bull season wasn’t overly enthusiastic, which prevented the decline from being as sharp, and believes the market will form a base by trading sideways for a while.
Alden predicts that Bitcoin’s next big move will begin when it’s “worn out and considered dead” by everyone, but under the control of powerful hands.
*This is not investment advice.
