Asset management company VanEck made 15 predictions for the cryptocurrency market for 2024 in a recent statement. Here are the company's key takeaways:
- US Recession and Bitcoin ETFs: It is predicted that a recession will occur in the US, but the first Bitcoin ETFs will be launched. Over $2.4 billion could flow into these ETFs in Q1 2024 to support Bitcoin's price.
- Bitcoin Halving: The 4th Bitcoin halving in 2024 will cause minimal market disruption and a post-halving surge in Bitcoin price, providing significant gains for some low-cost miners.
- Bitcoin All-Time High: Bitcoin will reach an all-time high in Q4 2024, potentially spurred by political events and regulatory changes following the US presidential election.
- Ethereum vs Bitcoin: Ethereum will not surpass Bitcoin in 2024, but it will still outperform major tech stocks. Ethereum's market share will be challenged by other smart contract platforms.
- Ethereum Layer 2s: After the implementation of EIP-4844, Ethereum Layer 2s will capture the majority of EVM-compatible TVL and transaction volume.
- NFT Activity: NFT activity will surge to an all-time high, with Ethereum leading the way and Bitcoin gaining traction via the Ordinals protocol, pushing the ETH-BTC NFT issuance ratio to 3-1 by the end of 2024.
- Binance's Position: Binance will lose its No. 1 position in spot trading as rivals such as OKX, Bybit, Coinbase and Bitget compete for the leadership. Coinbase's futures market could surpass $1 billion in daily volume, with inclusion in a regulated index becoming key.
- Stablecoin Market Cap: Stablecoin market cap will reach an all-time high, reaching over $200 billion. USDC will reverse market share losses and indicate a shift towards more institutional adoption, especially in emerging Tier 2 chains.
- DEXs (Decentralized Exchanges): DEXs will reach all-time highs in spot trading market share, encouraging on-chain trading and self-custody, thanks to fast blockchains like Solana and wallets that enable automated transactions.
- Remittances: “Bitcoin Staking” on the Lightning Network will increase remittance blockchain usage by providing return opportunities through new, user-friendly staking tools.
- Blockchain Games: A released blockchain game can exceed 1 million daily players. Immutable
- Solana: As DeFi TVL rises and interest in the ETF increases, it is estimated that Solana will surpass Pyth oracle and Chainlink's TVS and become one of the top 3 blockchains in terms of market capitalization, TVL and users.
- DePin Networks: DePin networks, specifically Hivemapper and Helium, will gain greater adoption as Hivemapper maps significant distances and Helium's 5G network expands rapidly, offering cost-effective alternatives to traditional infrastructures.
- Accounting Standards: New accounting standards will increase corporate crypto holdings. Coinbase will report Tier 2 revenue as the Base Protocol grows. By 2025, a major financial institution could launch a semi-public blockchain with public chain linking.
- KYC-Compliant DeFi Applications: KYC-compliant DeFi applications, led by Uniswap, will attract institutional volume and increase protocol fees by surpassing non-KYC ones, which may increase Uniswap's token value.
*This is not investment advice.