What Will Happen to Bitcoin If Satoshi Nakamoto’s Identity Is Really Revealed?

A recent HBO documentary has reignited the mystery surrounding Bitcoin’s (BTC) anonymous founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, by suggesting that developer Peter Todd may be Satoshi Nakamoto.

Bitcoin May Not Be Much Affected by Satoshi Nakamoto's Identity, According to Analysts

Revealing the identity of Nakamoto, whose fortune is estimated at $68 billion, could have had serious ramifications in the past. But experts and market participants say that in today’s environment, revealing the creator of Bitcoin no longer has the same significance.

This shift is largely due to Bitcoin’s adoption by financial giants. “Because the Bitcoin network is now global and robust, revealing Satoshi’s identity is only for the history books or entertainment value,” Samir Kerbage, chief investment officer at Hashdex, an asset management firm, said in a statement.

Major institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton have embraced Bitcoin as a mainstream asset class, fundamentally changing its role in the market. According to Kerbage, Nakamoto’s identity “does not change the fundamentals of Bitcoin or its long-term investment case.”

In the past, analysts have expressed concerns that revealing Satoshi’s identity could prompt them to sell off significant Bitcoin holdings, especially if Nakamoto is still alive, potentially destabilizing the market. Nakamoto is believed to control around 1.1 million Bitcoins worth around $68 billion, which are currently locked in dormant wallets.

In fact, Coinbase, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, acknowledges this risk in its quarterly reports, listing Nakamoto’s name alongside other risks to Bitcoin’s price, such as inflation, monetary policy, and geopolitical events. Coinbase itself holds around $60 billion worth of Bitcoin and provides custody for several U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Adam Morgan McCarthy, a research analyst at Kaiko, echoed those concerns. “When there’s a faceless person behind it, it’s much harder to imagine they’re selling,” he said. “If it turns out to be a real person, it changes the perception that these wallets are ‘dormant.’”

But McCarthy noted that Bitcoin ETFs, such as those launched by BlackRock and other firms, are now starting to rival Nakamoto’s vast holdings. The ETFs currently hold close to a million Bitcoins worth about $67 billion, just slightly less than Satoshi’s entire holdings.

*This is not investment advice.