Bitcoin's recent rise is at least partially attributed to optimism that multiple spot ETF products will soon launch. However, the following question comes to mind here: What will happen to the price of Bitcoin if the Spot ETF is not approved?
Analysts stated that the rejection of the spot ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could lead to negative short-term price movement for Bitcoin. However, they also emphasize that Bitcoin's existence is definitely not tied to an ETF.
Laurent Kssis, a crypto trading advisor at CEC Capital, suggests that a rejection could trigger a downward move and potentially push the price below $30,000. However, he notes that any decline should be balanced against other bullish catalysts, such as the upcoming halving.
Martin Leinweber, product strategist at MarketVector Indexes, predicts that any rejection would be a significant disappointment for the market. He says the Spot Bitcoin ETF is often seen as a sign of institutional acceptance and integration into mainstream financial systems.
Leinweber also points out that a denial could trigger legal turmoil for the SEC. The SEC suffered a major court loss in June when it ruled that its rejection of Grayscale's attempt to convert its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot ETF was “arbitrary and capricious.” The SEC did not appeal the decision in October, leading to current expectations that approvals would follow.
Although BTC, as a decentralized asset, does not tie its existence to an ETF, Leinweber believes that a rejection would undeniably cast a bearish shadow on Bitcoin's price in the short term. Leinweber also adds that the absence of the ETF would put significant pressure on the crypto market and require a period of adjustment and realignment.
*This is not investment advice.