Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $61,000 after the July FOMC minutes were mild.
While it is almost certain that interest rates will be cut in September following the FOMC minutes, according to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September is priced in at 71.5% and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is priced in at 28.5%.
What Causes the Rise in Bitcoin?
Evaluating the reasons for the rise in Bitcoin, Presto Research analyst Peter Chung explained the events that contributed to the recent rise.
Chung cited the mild FOMC minutes as well as Wednesday’s revised employment figures from the U.S. Labor Department as reasons for the rise.
“A record downward revision in US jobs data and last night’s mild FOMC minutes triggered a rally across risk assets like Bitcoin.
The yield curve has steepened, the DXY is now falling and small caps and bitcoin are rising.
“Also adding to the positive sentiment around BTC was the news that independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. would likely drop out and support Trump.”
According to This Data, There May Be a Decline in Bitcoin!
Despite positive macroeconomic indicators in Bitcoin and increasing institutional interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs, some analysts said that there is a risk of a downside in BTC.
At this point, CryptoQunat analyst stated that miners' Bitcoin OTC desk balances have reached a two-year peak, and said that these increases are usually associated with declines and indicate selling pressure.
“Miners’ Bitcoin OTC desk balances have increased by more than 70% in the past three months, from 215,000 BTC in June to 368,000 BTC in August – an increase of 153,000 BTC.
These balances have not reached such levels since June 2022.
Miners often turn to OTC (Over the Counter) deals to sell Bitcoin.
The significant increase in OTC desk balances indicates significant selling activity among miners.
Historically, increases in Bitcoin OTC desk balances have been associated with decreases in Bitcoin prices.”
What is needed for the continuation of the rise?
Finally, 10x Research, which expects an increase in Bitcoin, claimed in a report that a significant policy change or big news is needed for BTC to rise above the $65,000 level and continue its rise.
According to Decrypt, 10X Research said that the recent rally will likely encounter resistance around $65,000, adding, “We expect this recent rally to extend a bit further, but will likely encounter resistance at $65,000. A significant policy change or major news event will be required to achieve a larger increase.”
*This is not investment advice.