Uncertainty surrounding tonight’s debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is causing volatility in both the U.S. stock and crypto markets, according to analysts at QCP Capital.
While the overall cryptocurrency market cap has seen a modest gain of 1.9% in the past 24 hours, major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remain under pressure with weekly declines of 3% and 6%, respectively.
The impact of the debate is also being felt in traditional markets. U.S. stocks were volatile in early trading, with the S&P 500 giving up some of its early-week gains and falling 0.42%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost slightly more, down 0.5%, or about 200 points.
QCP Capital analysts noted that the uncertainty in stocks has also been reflected in the crypto market, with the correlation between cryptocurrencies and global stocks reaching the highest point in nearly two years. “Macroeconomic uncertainty currently dominates the crypto market, with the 30-day correlation with the MSCI World Equities Index reaching 0.6, approaching the highest level in two years,” the analysts said.
The firm also reported significant activity in the derivatives market, with volatility expected to increase in the Trump-Harris debate, which begins at 04:00 Turkish time. “We saw significant buying in Bitcoin options expiring on September 11, with 400 contracts at $57,500, suggesting a price movement of more than 3.3% from the current point around $56,800 by tomorrow’s expiration,” the analysts added.
Harris’s comments during the debate will be closely watched by market participants looking to gain insight into economic policy, according to a report by QCP Capital. “The market will be closely watching Kamala’s policy cues from the first debate, especially in contrast to Trump’s clear stance on lowering corporate taxes and raising tariffs, both of which are seen as inflationary,” they wrote.
While she is seen aligned with Trump due to her strong support for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, QCP Capital hinted that the real surprise could come from Harris herself if she mentions crypto positively during her campaign.
Despite the current uncertainty, QCP Capital remains optimistic about the fourth quarter and maintains a “structurally bullish” outlook.
*This is not investment advice.