After US President Joe Biden vetoed a bill aimed at repealing the anti-cryptocurrency SAB 121, analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein noted that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s approval of spot Ethereum ETFs last month He was skeptical of the idea that political influence played a role.
Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra addressed this issue in a note to clients today. They argued that the SEC's decision to approve Ethereum ETFs was likely driven by pragmatic considerations rather than political pressure.
“Given that the President vetoed the SAB 121 repeal bill, the politically motivated theory seems less credible, and it is likely that the SEC took a more pragmatic approach and avoided a legal challenge,” analysts wrote.
The SEC's approval came in the form of 19b-4 forms for eight spot Ethereum ETFs from leading firms such as BlackRock and Fidelity on May 23. However, these issuers must have their S-1 registration statements go into effect before trading can begin, a process that can take several days or weeks.
Analysts have noted that the SEC is likely cornered on approval, highlighting the regulatory similarities between Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs. “The SEC knew it was backed into a corner with the ETH ETF, which has the same regulatory structure as the Bitcoin ETF (same spot/futures correlation and ETH futures being active, indicating the current commodity status of the CME ETH futures market),” they added.
Going forward, Bernstein analysts predict strong demand for new Ethereum ETFs, but expect lower allocations compared to spot Bitcoin ETFs. They highlighted Ethereum's unique supply dynamics, such as staking, smart contracts, and HODL data, as factors that could drive positive price movement following the launch of ETFs, which is expected to occur within the next few days to a month.
*This is not investment advice.