Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at cryptocurrency research firm K33 Research, has published a comprehensive analysis examining the long-debated claims of “systematic selling at 10:00 AM” in the Bitcoin market.
According to Lunde’s study, which examined over 606,000 minutes of data between January 1, 2025, and February 26, 2026, Bitcoin’s average return at 10:00 AM (ET) is in the upper quartile of the strongest intraday timeframes.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin’s average minute return during the period in question was approximately -0.003 basis points, while the average return at 10:00 was calculated as 0.207 basis points. This performance makes 10:00 the 359th strongest minute of the day; in other words, 75% of the minutes during the period examined performed weaker than 10:00. Lunde argued that this data does not support the popular thesis that a systematic price drop occurs at 10:00.
The “systematic sell-off at 10:00 AM” theory is based on the claim that Bitcoin regularly experiences declines, particularly around 10:00 AM US Eastern Time, and that this could be linked to market makers or ETF flows. However, Lunde noted that the extensive dataset “quickly refutes” this view.
On the other hand, the analysis revealed that over a narrower timeframe (between November 1, 2025, and February 26, 2026), the average return at 10:00 minutes dropped to -1.41 basis points. During this period, 10:00 was the 35th worst minute of the day and within the weakest 2.36% range. Negative returns were observed at 10:00 minutes on 53.85% of the days examined, while 12% of the minutes had a higher frequency of negative returns than 10:00. Lunde acknowledged that 10:00 might appear as a “negative outlier” in the short-term sample, but stated that this is not sufficient to directly indicate market manipulation.
Furthermore, the picture appears more balanced when examining the time windows around 10:00. The average return was -0.0033% between 09:55 and 10:05, +0.0017% between 09:50 and 10:10, and +0.0038% between 10:00 and 10:10. Losses remained quite limited in the wider 09:30–10:30 and 10:00–11:00 intervals.
Lunde also noted that the weakest minutes cannot be assessed solely by focusing on “round hours.” Between November 1, 2025, and February 26, 2026, the worst-performing minutes included “irregular” times such as 10:12, 09:41, 17:13, 10:46, and 14:02. He argued that this points to general volatility dynamics associated with US trading hours, rather than manipulation focused on a specific time.
One of the clearest findings of the analysis is that Bitcoin volatility increases significantly when US markets are open. Volatility intensifies particularly in the minutes leading up to US macroeconomic data releases and the opening of the stock market. The 09:31–09:37 (ET) interval, immediately following the opening of the US stock market, represents the peak of volatility. This indicates that Bitcoin’s market microstructure is closely linked to the US stock market.
In conclusion, Lunde stated that the data did not provide clear evidence of intentional and systematic selling at a specific time.
*This is not investment advice.
