In a recent statement, famous cryptocurrency analyst Andrew Kang shared his views and predictions regarding the price of Ethereum.
Kang noted that Bitcoin ETFs have opened the door for many new buyers to allocate Bitcoin in their portfolios, but the impact of Ethereum ETFs will be less clear.
The analyst reminded that when the Blackrock ETF application was made, he said that he was clearly bullish for Bitcoin at the $ 25,000 level. Since then, Bitcoin has returned 2.6x and Ethereum has returned 2.1x. From the bottom of the cycle, both Bitcoin and ETH delivered a similar 4.0x return.
However, Kang argued that an ETH ETF may not provide much advantage unless Ethereum develops an attractive way to improve its economics.
Citing estimates from Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas, Kang suggested Ethereum ETF flows could be 10% of Bitcoin. This will increase actual net purchase flows to $0.5 billion and reported net flows to $1.5 billion within six months.
Kang's ETF flow base case for ETH is 15%. Starting from Bitcoin's true net worth of $5 billion, adjusting for Ethereum's market cap of 33% of Bitcoin and a reach factor of 0.5, we arrive at a true net worth of $0.84 billion and a reported net worth of $2.52 billion. Kang also presented an optimistic scenario of an actual net of $1.5 billion and a reported net of $4.5 billion, which is about 30% of Bitcoin flows.
In both cases, the actual net purchase is much less than the futures ETF flows, accounting for $2.4 billion, according to the analyst. This means that, according to Kang, the ETF is currently overpriced.
However, Kang does not believe that Ethereum will go to zero. He expects Ethereum to trade between $3,000 and $3,800 before the ETF launch and between $2,400 and $3,000 after the ETF launch. However, if Bitcoin rises to $100k in late Q4 2025, this could drag Ethereum to new all-time highs, but the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio could be lower.
*This is not investment advice.
