Ben Cowen, one of the most important data-driven voices in the cryptocurrency market, made striking statements about Bitcoin and the overall market cycle in his latest appearance. Comparing current price movements to past periods, Cowen urged investors to be rational rather than impulsive.
Ben Cowen believes the probability of Bitcoin having reached a true bottom in its current cycle is quite low. The renowned analyst stated, “I think the probability of Bitcoin having found its bottom is only around 25%,” signaling that the price could fall even further in the coming period. According to Cowen, even if the price theoretically reaches $80,000, this doesn’t mean the lows won’t be retested.
Cowen argued that, contrary to popular belief, bear markets spend most of their time in upward trends rather than downward movements. He stated that this misleads both bulls and bears, noting that declines are usually very short-lived and sharp.
Cowen stated that a drop in Bitcoin to between $30,000 and $50,000 could be a convincing bottom consistent with historical indicators. Noting that 2026 is a “midterm election year” in the US, Cowen argued that these years are generally difficult for crypto and that the market should undergo a “time-based capitulation” process.
Cowen, who likened the altcoin market to a casino, said that investors should focus on Bitcoin, as altcoins could continue to lose value against Bitcoin.
*This is not investment advice.
