Digital asset manager VanEck, in its market assessment for 2026, stated that the downside risks for Bitcoin remain limited in this cycle, and that the new year is more likely to be a period of consolidation rather than a major rally or a sharp crash.
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, stated that the outlook for 2026 shows mixed but generally positive signals in the digital asset markets at the beginning of the year. According to Sigel, while Bitcoin experienced a pullback of approximately 80% in the previous cycle, volatility over time has nearly halved. This suggests that a potential correction in the current cycle could be limited to around 40%. The market, it is noted, has already priced in approximately 35% of this decline.
The report also added that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle remains valid after its peak in early October 2025. In this context, VanEck believes that 2026 is more likely to be a year of equilibrium and sideways movement rather than a strong rise or sharp fall.
On the global liquidity front, a mixed picture emerges. While expectations of interest rate cuts are seen as potentially supporting the market, tensions between AI-focused capital expenditures in the US and fragile funding conditions could widen credit spreads and tighten liquidity somewhat. On the other hand, it’s noted that leverage ratios in the cryptocurrency ecosystem have rebalanced after recent turmoil, and while on-chain activity remains weak, it’s beginning to show signs of recovery.
*This is not investment advice.
