Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at $108 billion asset manager VanEck, expressed an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin in a recent interview with CNBC, citing the upcoming US elections as a key catalyst.
Sigel Expects Post-Election 2020-Like Scenario for Bitcoin
Sigel pointed out similarities between the current market and the environment in 2020, when Bitcoin saw a strong post-election rally.
“This is a very bullish setup for Bitcoin heading into the election,” Sigel said. Drawing parallels with the previous election cycle in 2020, Sigel noted that Bitcoin experienced low volatility leading up to the election and then staged a significant rally after the results were announced. Sigel noted that “new buyers are constantly entering the market,” setting the stage for a potential price rally once the election results are clear.
Sigel also outlined a bold prediction from VanEck that sees Bitcoin as a global reserve asset by 2050. The firm expects BTC to reach a price of $3 million in the next few decades, driven by increasing demand and a fixed supply of 21 million coins. The emergence of Bitcoin as a reserve asset could be a response to the risks of devaluation faced by traditional currencies.
Bitcoin’s recent rally to over $68,000 earlier today marks a 100% increase in the past year. Sigel attributed the surge in part to the rising odds of pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump winning in US election prediction markets. “Trump is clearly more pro-crypto and pro-Bitcoin,” Sigel said, comparing Trump’s stance to Vice President Kamala Harris, who has yet to take a clear position on digital assets.
Sigel noted that Bitcoin’s long-term price action is correlated with money supply growth and negatively correlated with the US dollar. The recent turnaround by the Fed, which led to an acceleration in money supply growth, may be affecting the ongoing rally. He also pointed out that Bitcoin sell-offs following asset seizures by the US and German governments were events that temporarily suppressed prices but have since eased.
During the interview, Sigel highlighted a key geopolitical trend: the growing influence of the BRICS countries. Sigel explained that the combined GDP of the BRICS will surpass that of the G7 with the addition of six new members by 2024. Some of these new members, including Argentina, the UAE, and Ethiopia, have launched state-backed Bitcoin mining initiatives.
Sigel also noted that Russia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund plans to invest in a regional initiative to create Bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure across the BRICS, with the aim of embedding global trade in Bitcoin. The move signals a growing urgency among countries outside the US to find alternatives to the US dollar in the face of what he called “irresponsible fiscal policy” in the US.
*This is not investment advice.