As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, experts are divided on where the Bitcoin price could head depending on the outcome.
The race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris could set the stage for sharply opposing price trajectories for the world's largest cryptocurrency.
Donald Trump’s campaign promises could pave the way for a Bitcoin rally, according to market analysts. Trump’s promises include halting the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) crypto crackdown, freeing Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, and creating a national Bitcoin reserve. These moves would amount to a regulatory turnaround that crypto enthusiasts believe would benefit the industry.
Joshua de Vos, Research Leader at CCData, predicts a short-term rise in Bitcoin’s price if Trump wins. “The market will respond positively to the increased regulatory certainty under his administration,” de Vos said in an interview.
Estimates vary on the scope of this potential rally. Bernstein analysts predict a climb to $90,000, while FRNT Financial’s David Brickell and former forex trader Chris Mills predict Bitcoin could reach a record $100,000. Standard Chartered offers an even more bullish scenario, suggesting that “a Red Sweep (Republican wins in the presidency, Senate and House) could send Bitcoin’s value to $125,000 by the end of 2024.”
Kamala Harris’ stance on cryptocurrencies has been less definitive. While her campaign has shown interest in engaging with the sector, Harris’ own comments have focused more on encouraging innovation in technologies like artificial intelligence and digital assets.
Crypto critics say Harris’ position is unclear and signals that President Joe Biden’s stricter regulatory approach will continue. “If Kamala Harris wins, we could see a short-term negative reaction as the market adjusts to new uncertainties,” De Vos said. However, he added that Harris’ administration could offer more clarity compared to current policies.
In this scenario, Bernstein analysts predict that Bitcoin could fall by around 30% and bottom out around $50,000. However, Standard Chartered is more optimistic, predicting that if Harris wins the presidency, Bitcoin could rise to $75,000 by the end of the year.
Regardless of who wins, analysts agree that Bitcoin’s long-term prospects are strong. “The Bitcoin monster has emerged, and it’s hard to reverse this trend,” Bernstein said, predicting that the cryptocurrency could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
David Brickell and Chris Mills also highlighted macroeconomic factors that could impact Bitcoin’s price in the coming months, such as potential Fed rate cuts and Chinese stimulus measures. “The macro backdrop is supportive for Bitcoin to finish the year well above current levels,” said Javier Rodriguez-Alarcon, Chief Commercial Officer at XBTO, potentially reaching $100,000.
*This is not investment advice.