Cryptocurrency hedge fund manager Charles Edwards has made some bold predictions about the future of Bitcoin. According to Edwards, if Bitcoin's post-halving returns are the same as 2020, we may see a Bitcoin price of $280 thousand next year.
Edwards argues that the 2020 cycle performance was essentially mediocre to exceptional, calling it the “worst Bitcoin bull market in history.”
He attributes this to the -50% collapse of the mining network by China and the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle in history. These were two major, stagnating forces on Bitcoin that we are very unlikely to see again in the next 2 years, according to Edwards.
Looking to 2024, Edwards thinks that fortunes will reverse for Bitcoin. With the resumption of Quantitative Easing (QE) and the Fed loosening its policies, expect a weaker dollar, which traditionally leads to a stronger Bitcoin.
Edwards also considers the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in January as a development as strong as the “second halving”.
Edwards draws a parallel with the Gold “GLD” ETF launched in 2004, stating that the gold market cap was 4 times larger than Bitcoin is today. Gold has reached $13 trillion, a parabolic increase of over 300% in less than 7 years. Considering Bitcoin's current market cap is just over $800 billion, Edwards believes a 300% appreciation from ETFs alone would likely be too conservative for Bitcoin.
Edwards also points out that markets move much faster today than they did 20 years ago, and every major technology advancement over the past century has been adopted more rapidly. According to the manager, Bitcoin is actually growing faster than the internet right now.
As a result, Edwards believes that a 500% return in the 18 months following the halving would not be historically unusual for Bitcoin. According to Edwards, an additional return of 300% over the next 2-5 years from ETFs alone may be a conservative assumption. This leads Edwards to predict a conservative Bitcoin price of $300,000 in the next few years.
But Edwards warns that a lot can happen between now and the future that will push these numbers up or down. Other data will also become more relevant at different points in time. Therefore, he recommends that the cryptocurrency community do its own research and consider his predictions only as a perspective and not as investment advice.
If negative events like 2020 occur in this cycle, Edwards thinks the Bitcoin price could approach the 100,000 level. However, as he points out, after a 2-year bear market, we are conditioned to predict the next 2 years to be equal to the last 2 years; and Bitcoin rarely works like that.
*This is not investment advice.