Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, suffered a significant decline, falling to around $38,600 following the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Fidelity Managing Director Jurrien Timmer recently gave an assessment of this situation.
It has been a week since the launch of eleven spot Bitcoin products. Timmer noted that some “BTC proxy” positions in Bitcoin futures and Bitcoin-sensitive stocks have been released. Predicting further unraveling in the future, Timmer suggests that the Bitcoin price may continue to fluctuate.
Timmer believes that Bitcoin's price is driven by the size and growth of its network. This is also affected by rarity characteristics (stock-to-flow) and real rates (FED policy). According to the chart he mentioned, Bitcoin's network is growing along a standard strength regression curve. This shows that the S-curve structure of the Bitcoin network continues.
Timmer argues that the BTC price has returned to the fair value band where it should be. The slope of Timmer's curve is based on the internet adoption curve from decades ago, and its width is based on the real rate band of -2% (top) and +2.5% (bottom).
*This is not investment advice.