Once a niche topic, cryptocurrencies are now at the top of mainstream political discourse. However, as the US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris approaches, the likelihood of cryptocurrencies being mentioned remains slim.
Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, offers a “What will Trump say in the debate?” contract where traders can predict whether certain terms will be mentioned. As of midday Tuesday in New York, there was only an 18% chance Trump would mention “crypto” or “Bitcoin,” and shares were trading at 18 cents. If Trump mentions those terms, he will pay $1 worth of crypto for each share. Otherwise, the shares will become worthless.
Despite the growing clout of cryptocurrencies, it lags behind more traditional hot topics. For example, there is an 83% chance Trump will mention “abortion,” making it the most likely topic. Other possibilities include “Comrade Kamala,” a term that is expected with a 40% probability.
Vice President Kamala Harris, on the other hand, is even less likely to mention cryptocurrencies at 13%. Similar to Trump, “abortion” is the most likely topic for Harris, with an 87% chance. Additionally, she is 58% likely to refer to her opponent as a “convicted felon.”
While Trump has been actively outreaching to the crypto community this year, Harris’ campaign has been more reserved, aligning herself with an administration generally perceived as hostile to the industry.
*This is not investment advice.
