Bitcoin could approach a new all-time high of $73,000 on November 5, the day of the US presidential election, according to Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered.
Kendrick bases his predictions on analysis of Bitcoin futures and trading volume indicators.
“We use daily Bitcoin volume levels and popular strike levels to predict post-election price movements. Our baseline assumption is that the BTC price will be around $73,000 on election day,” the analyst said.
Kendrick also noted potential price action based on the election outcome. If former President Donald Trump wins the presidency, options breakevens suggest a potential 4% increase in Bitcoin’s price once the results are certified. He also suggested a potential total increase of around 10% in the days following a Trump victory.
The analyst emphasized the importance of dynamics in the options market. He noted that there was a heavy open interest in BTC call options that expired at $80,000 strike price on December 27 and that there was a rapid movement towards this level.
Kendrick also suggested that a Republican takeover of Congress could push Bitcoin prices even higher. “If Republicans take control of Congress, our year-end target for Bitcoin could be $125,000,” he said. In contrast, he noted that if Vice President Kamala Harris prevails, Bitcoin could experience an initial drop, but is expected to finish 2024 around $75,000.
He also pointed to recent trading activity as a positive indicator for Bitcoin’s future. “The price of Bitcoin has been rising in recent weeks, coinciding with other trades popular with Trump supporters,” Kendrick said. Citing RealClearPolitics’ current odds, Kendrick said Trump has a 59% chance of winning, while certain markets, such as Polymarket, have a 75% chance of the Republicans winning the election if Trump wins.
The analyst added that the local low of $65,200 seen on Wednesday could be the final dip before the US elections, indicating increasing momentum heading into November 5.
*This is not investment advice.
