Bitcoin price volatility could increase and a potential pullback could occur as the US presidential election approaches, according to Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered.
Kendrick’s analysis suggests that pre-election position liquidations could pressure Bitcoin prices and reduce the likelihood of a break above all-time highs.
Bitcoin, currently trading at $70,563, recently approached the all-time high of $73,700 set on March 14. However, Kendrick noted that election-related sell-offs could hurt Bitcoin’s chances of breaking that threshold. “There is a risk of unwinding pre-election positions, meaning we are more likely to be below $73,000 on Election Day,” he wrote in a recent note.
Kendrick pointed to the Bitcoin options market, which could signal increased volatility as the election approaches. The seven-day option premium is rising above the 30-day premium, a trend Kendrick attributes to the possibility of a late reaction to the election results. Kendrick said the trend is reminiscent of the volatility experienced before the Bitcoin ETF was launched in early January. “The options markets have a form that is very similar to the implied volatility that occurs around well-known events like ETF launches and, by implication, the US election,” he said.
While a short-term pullback is in sight, Kendrick believes that a Republican takeover of Congress could spark a significant BTC rally, with BTC reaching $125,000 by the end of the year. A Republican victory could also support other digital assets, with Kendrick noting that Solana would be a potential winner in this scenario.
*This is not investment advice.
