Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has warned that Bitcoin (BTC) faces a potential market sell-off triggered by a bad recession.
Despite the approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs and millions of inflows two weeks ago, the price of Bitcoin has fallen nearly 14% from its recent high.
Soloway, who correctly predicted the “sell the news” event for the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in October, emphasized the importance of previous Bitcoin trading patterns. “If we go back to the highs of the 2017 Bitcoin bull market, then futures had essentially broken out,” Soloway said:
“There was a lot of excitement leading up to that news. And that was the high of the cycle. If we go back to the first peak in 2021, it was Coinbase's IPO. And this marked the top. “These big news are creating a lot of excitement and highs in Bitcoin.”
The analyst noted that GBTC is selling Bitcoin, causing a downward move. Soloway said, “A lot of smart people bought ahead of this news. GBTC was trading at a huge discount, so it was an extra bonus for them as well. They are taking their profits.” he explained.
Another reason for the outflows is GBTC's 1.5% fee, which is much higher than its competitors. In comparison, BlackRock and Fidelity's fees will be 0.25% after a waiver period. “So there will be a certain amount of money that will sell GBTC and eventually turn into these other ETFs that have much lower fees,” Soloway added.
Soloway predicts that the sell-off in Bitcoin will stabilize in the next few weeks, but he warned of another risk that could hit BTC:
“My biggest fear, and this is the only bearish case I have for Bitcoin, is what happens if we get a market top in the S&P? “What happens if we have a de-risking event in the general markets, in the equity markets?”
A sell-off in stocks could mean more trouble for spot Bitcoin ETF inflows as people fear:
“I am worried that Bitcoin may decline again. “If we see a 50% drop in the stock market, I think Bitcoin could retest the $15,000 level.”
So far this year, the stock market has performed well, with the S&P 500 and Dow reaching all-time highs and the Nasdaq trading near record highs. However, Soloway said past Bitcoin trading patterns point to a potential top in the market:
“We are seeing all-time highs almost every day right now. So why is Bitcoin stalling? One thing I want to point out: If you look at Bitcoin's past cycles, it peaked in December 2017 and the S&P peaked six weeks later in early 2018. If you go back to 2021, Bitcoin peaked in November at $69,000, and six weeks later the S&P peaked. I'm a little on guard here. “Now let's watch what happens over the next three-plus weeks.”
Soloway also emphasized that the mainstream view of the market's solid performance is wrong, noting that only the technology sector is performing well.
*This is not investment advice.
