Polymarket, a prediction platform, found that there was a significant decline in the probability of approval of the spot Ethereum ETF by the end of May. Rates have fallen to 28%, in stark contrast to the 74% predicted on January 10, when spot Bitcoin ETFs were given the green light.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, sparking speculation about the potential approval of spot Ethereum ETFs. Asset managers including industry giants BlackRock and Fidelity have since filed identical applications.
However, the SEC had recently postponed its decision on BlackRock and Fidelity's ETH ETF applications.
Analysts at Ryze Labs have expressed their opinions on this matter. They believe SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's limited authority over spot Bitcoin ETFs gives the agency more leeway to reject future non-Bitcoin ETF applications:
“We view this as likely and believe Gensler's legacy is that he does not want to be SEC Chair approving the crypto asset class by approving multiple ETFs.”
*This is not investment advice.
