Cryptocurrency analytics firm MarktQuant has released the results of a Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts the price of Bitcoin over the next six months. Based on thousands of simulated price paths, the forecast offers a range of possible outcomes that illuminate both potential gains and risks.
According to the Results, Bitcoin Could Drop Below $51,000 with a 5% Chance
According to MarktQuant, the simulation used a starting Bitcoin price of $82,655.52. The results show an average final price of $258,445.24
According to MarktQuant, the simulation used a starting Bitcoin price of $82,655.52. The results show an average final price of $258,445.24, indicating a significant potential increase. However, the range of results is wide, with the 5th percentile result predicting a possible drop to $51,430.23, while the 95th percentile result sees Bitcoin reaching $712,118.81.
This means that in 5% of simulated scenarios, Bitcoin’s price could end up at or below this value, representing the worst-case scenario within the model.
On the other hand, the 95th percentile means that Bitcoin’s price is at or below this value in 95% of simulated scenarios. This represents the best-case scenario within the model.
Monte Carlo simulation is a statistical method used to model possible future price movements by running a large number of random scenarios based on historical volatility and other market factors. It helps analysts estimate the probability of different price outcomes rather than making a single-point prediction.
*This is not investment advice.
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The important part of this article is in Turkish. Could you pls translate to English.
Thank you