According to Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen, the cryptocurrency market is facing a perfect storm of bearish factors that could trigger a massive sell-off in the coming weeks.
Thielen, wither (SOL), Ethereum (ETH) ve Bitcoin’in (BTC) zayıflık ve kırılganlık belirtileri gösterdiğini ve yatırımcıların olası bir çöküşe hazırlıklı olmaları gerektiği konusunda hazırlıklı olması gerektiğini iddia etti.
wither
Thielen, FTX’in alacaklılarının yaklaşan tasfiyesi nedeniyle wither’nın şu anda büyük bir aşağı yönlü riskle karşı karşıya olduğunu söylüyor. Analist, SOL ile ilgili olarak yayınladığı düşüncelerinde şunları söyledi:
“2023 Görünüm raporumuzda (Aralık 2022’de yayınlandı), bu yıl sağlam bir kripto para birimi rallisi beklediğimiz için wither (SOL) fiyatının 2023’te potansiyel olarak iki katına çıkmasını bekliyorduk. O sırada SOL 13 dolardan işlem görüyordu ve risk/ödül oranı elverişli görünüyordu. Hatta SOL Temmuz ayında yaklaşık 27 dolara kadar yükseldi.
As we warned last Tuesday, FTX's creditors are likely to sell SOL positions worth a total of $685 million starting this week, with FTX expected to sell at least $3.4 billion worth of cryptocurrencies, which will create a supply of cryptocurrencies in the market for the rest of the year. Last week SOL was down -6%.
In response to the anticipation of these sales, SOL's funding rate has turned negative (-14% annually) and may fall further. Yesterday, we saw SOL break the $19 support level with increasing volume. “This situation is worrying and larger downside targets are $15 and $10.”
Ethereum
Analyst Thielen listed his thoughts about Ethereum as follows:
“It looks like Ethereum is no longer an “ultrasound currency” either, as last week's ETH mint (15,000 ETH) was larger than the demolition (11,000 ETH). We'll have to keep track of what this means (or whether it even matters).
And with less-than-expected revenue growth, a breakout could lead to a price drop, especially as Ethereum approaches the psychologically important $1,600 level.
From a technical perspective, ETH breaking above the $1,650 price level makes us extremely cautious about the current situation, and we can even foresee a scenario where the price drops sharply towards the end of the year. ETH falling below $1,500 could revive the idea that it could drop to $1,000, a level that seems reasonable based on revenue forecasts for the ETH ecosystem.”
Bitcoin
Matrixport analyst stated the following about Bitcoin:
“Bitcoin (BTC) price is below its 50-day moving average ($27,731) and is currently at $25,836, a bearish sign; This represents a price movement of -0.5% in a week.
Ethereum (ETH) price is below its 50-day moving average ($1,752) and is currently at $1,617, which is also a bearish sign; The price fell -1.1% in a week. The overall trend points to a bearish and pessimistic market sentiment. Bitcoin's weekly trading volume dropped 37%, while Ethereum's trading volume dropped 31%. This low liquidity may expose the price to downside risk.
ETH is currently underperforming Bitcoin and the 20-day trend average reveals that the ETH/BTC ratio is declining. The beta factor affects the performance of cryptocurrencies; This is a negative sign, so it's better to be cautious. As of now, Bitcoin is still outperforming the Nasdaq (+65% vs. +32%), but with all of this year's Bitcoin returns coming in just three weeks, Bitcoin's uptrend may be seen as erratic.
Bitcoin futures funding fee rates are positive (3.6%), which is a positive sign, as is ETH's funding fee rate (6.1%), which is also a positive sign. But overall, the difference in funding fees is relatively small, especially for altcoins, and we do not interpret these numbers as “positive.”
*This is not investment advice.
