According to a report by K33 Research, Ethereum is expected to make a significant comeback against Bitcoin this month. ETH has been underperforming BTC since the beginning of the year.
Ethereum will launch its first US-listed ETF in July, which is expected to create a surge in new institutional demand for ETH. K33 Research predicts that Ethereum ETFs will absorb 0.75% to 1% of all ETH in circulation within the first five months on the market.
Despite the potential for a short-term “sell the news” event following the ETF launch, similar to what happened with Bitcoin ETFs in January, K33 Research believes Ethereum's “favorable supply dynamics” will provide it with “relative strength” over the next few months.
“ETFs are a solid catalyst for relative ETH strength as the summer progresses and flows accumulate,” said Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research. “I definitely see current ETH/BTC prices as an advantage for patient traders.
Bitcoin holders, on the other hand, have been using the defunct Bitcoin exchange Mt. It is bracing for a potential downside due to the upcoming distribution of 141,686 BTC ($8.8 billion) from Gox. According to some analysts, this event, which has been expected for a decade, could lead to significant selling pressure on Bitcoin.
K33 Research said in a recent market update:
“We expect clear selling pressure on Bitcoin in a dry summer market, with the chop suey range widening as the leaves turn orange until better days emerge.”
The popularity of the new Ethereum ETF has helped CME ETH open interest reach an all-time high, currently at 372,000 ETH ($1.26 billion). According to analysts, this high level of demand indicates an intention to make directional transactions around ETH before ETFs go live, although the direction of these transactions remains unclear.
“Soft funding rates indicate balanced expectations, with neither bullish nor bearish positions predominating, highlighting the uncertain market outlook and lack of consensus as ETH ETF launches approach,” the report said.
*This is not investment advice.