With just a week left until the US elections, Donald Trump's chance of winning is priced at 66.1% and Kamala Harris's chance of winning is priced at 33.8%.
While the probability of Trump winning increases day by day, there is no significant upward movement in Bitcoin. At this point, QCP Capital analysts evaluated the latest situation of Bitcoin and its relationship with Trump.
Despite Bitcoin being referred to as the Trump trade, analysts stated that the BTC price did not increase in the face of Trump's increasing probability of winning, and attributed this situation to BTC's weakening relationship with Trump.
Noting that the Uptober narrative failed to show itself this October, analysts said that Bitcoin remained below its historical 21% rally average and gained only 8%.
Analysts, who pointed to $70,000 as the first critical target for Bitcoin, added that the new ATH could come after the price rises above $70,000.
“Trump's interview on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, which aired about a week before the election, gained significant momentum with over 32 million views and increased Polymarket ratings over 66%.
Despite the cryptocurrency being touted as the “Trump Trade,” BTC’s correlation with Trump’s rates appears to be weakening as it aims to breach $70,000 and surpass its July highs.
BTC is up only 8% this ‘Uptober’ compared to an average of 21%.
If Spot remains at these levels, this October would mark BTC’s fourth worst performance in the last decade.
Will BTC break $70,000 as the market anticipates next week's election results?
“A breakout above $70,000 could trigger new all-time highs, especially with the participation of more leveraged long positions.”
*This is not investment advice.