Bitcoin is closely correlated with Donald Trump's chances of winning in the US presidential election in November.
At this point, analysts predict that the BTC price could rise to $90,000 after Trump's possible victory, while option investors expect Bitcoin to rise to $100,000 by the end of the year.
Bitcoin's Probability of Reaching $100,000 is 9.5 Percent!
However, it was stated that according to the current state of Bitcoin options, the chance of the BTC price reaching $ 100,000 by the end of the year is 9.58%.
Analysts said the probability of Bitcoin price reaching $100,000 is 9.58%, according to data from crypto options trading platform Deribit.
Stating that Deribit's BTC Volatility Index (DVOL) is currently at 54%, analysts state that according to this rate, Bitcoin is more likely to rise to $80,000 by the end of the year.
Analysts also added that Bitcoin could experience a 22% price swing in either direction by the end of December, according to options market data.
“The current market implied volatility of BTC options expiring on December 27 is 54%. This means that in the best-case scenario, the BTC price will rise by more than 22% by the end of the year to around $82,000. However, volatility goes both ways, so a 22% drop should not be ruled out,” Griffin Ardern, head of options trading and research at BloFin, told Coindesk.
Despite investors' optimism about Bitcoin hitting $100,000, Blume analysts said volatility could increase depending on the outcome of the US presidential election in November, noting that options data and rates can change rapidly with market conditions.
“A victory for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump is not fully priced in, and crypto investors should be prepared for a lot of volatility either way.
This reminds me of biotech stocks on the dates when the FDA is determining whether drugs will be approved. These stocks either soar or fall on those days, and you can usually bet something volatile is going to happen.
A possible Harris victory could bring downward volatility to the Bitcoin market, and a Harris victory would not be positive for BTC and the crypto market, at least for a while.”
According to Polymarket data, Trump's probability of winning the election is priced at 64.7%, while Harris' probability of winning is priced at 35.4%.
*This is not investment advice.